Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.056878 0.065068 0.074284 0.085473 0.098759 0.114112 0.133316
2025-11-16 0.044465 0.054438 0.066629 0.082802 0.103951 0.131029 0.168916
2025-11-23 0.035774 0.046378 0.060293 0.080250 0.108735 0.148883 0.211529
2025-11-30 0.029953 0.040902 0.056239 0.079914 0.116702 0.173785 0.273528
2025-12-07 0.025359 0.036288 0.052534 0.079393 0.124670 0.201919 0.353529
2025-12-14 0.021188 0.031569 0.047823 0.076394 0.128280 0.225084 0.437944
2025-12-21 0.017156 0.026402 0.041501 0.069417 0.123396 0.232200 0.497093
2025-12-28 0.015016 0.023932 0.039173 0.068977 0.130855 0.267320 0.643006
2026-01-04 0.013487 0.022240 0.037890 0.070260 0.142534 0.317772 0.869922
2026-01-11 0.012053 0.020486 0.036186 0.070367 0.152053 0.369011 1.151936
2026-01-18 0.010823 0.018916 0.034556 0.070290 0.161462 0.426472 1.526884
2026-01-25 0.009594 0.017165 0.032269 0.068242 0.165435 0.471841 1.923645
2026-02-01 0.008388 0.015317 0.029531 0.064663 0.164647 0.504550 2.334621
2026-02-08 0.007667 0.014341 0.028491 0.065047 0.175882 0.589958 3.226001
2026-02-15 0.007011 0.013407 0.027386 0.065032 0.186296 0.683419 4.449773
2026-02-22 0.006522 0.012757 0.026819 0.066376 0.202305 0.819545 6.550371
2026-03-01 0.006065 0.012112 0.026155 0.067307 0.217758 0.973659 9.672153
2026-03-08 0.005542 0.011252 0.024824 0.065931 0.224060 1.089411 13.168560
2026-03-15 0.004909 0.010065 0.022493 0.060893 0.213288 1.093120 15.037905
2026-03-22 0.004588 0.009568 0.021863 0.061191 0.226067 1.274199 22.427038
2026-03-29 0.004357 0.009252 0.021657 0.062875 0.246592 1.551735 37.185840
2026-04-05 0.004104 0.008852 0.021161 0.063447 0.262533 1.829732 59.887715
2026-04-12 0.003866 0.008462 0.020631 0.063777 0.277897 2.144169 98.486071